Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
'Nobody explained why. After that there was panic buying, there was hoarding -- and then nothing reached us.'
Mumbai hotels and restaurants are facing potential closures due to a critical shortage of commercial LPG cylinders, with similar disruptions reported across India. The crisis stems from revised government priorities for domestically produced natural gas, impacting the hospitality sector and potentially affecting tourism.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda criticises the state government over alleged LPG cylinder shortages and black marketing, urging immediate action to alleviate public hardship. He also addresses concerns regarding farmers' MSP and the SYL canal issue.
AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's relationship with US President Donald Trump, alleging that Modi is acting as Trump's 'slave' and jeopardising India's interests on trade, oil and foreign policy.
Tamil Nadu Petroleum Dealers' Association urged people not to panic-buy petrol or diesel, stating that 14 terminals in Tamil Nadu have enough stock to replenish 7,000-plus retail outlets as per their demand.
US-Israel air attacks intensified on the seventh day of war, striking Tehran and other Iranian cities.
The Indian government has revised its natural gas allocation priorities, placing LPG production alongside CNG and piped cooking gas at the top, due to disruptions in imported gas supplies caused by the conflict in West Asia.
The BJP has criticised the Congress party for allegedly prioritising its vote bank and outdated ideologies over India's national interest and citizen safety in its foreign policy approach towards Iran.
India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, spent 2.5 billion euro on buying crude oil from Russia in September, 14 per cent less than the previous month, a European think tank said. India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in September behind China, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
India could save $1 billion in crude oil imports annually if the country switches 10 per cent of its diesel usage in the transport sector to liquefied natural gas.
As the rupee has been on a downward slide and crossed 90 a dollar, consumer electronics firms are looking to raise prices of products ranging from air conditioners (ACs) to television panels up to 10 per cent.
Dubai's core promise -- that it is an oasis untouched by regional storms -- has been tested in full public view. The coming months will show whether investors view the attacks as a short-lived disruption or a deeper signal of lasting risk, points out Asif Ullah Khan.
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
Retail inflation stood at 2.75 per cent in January under the new series of All India Consumer Price Index (CPI), with 2024 as the base year, released on Thursday.
Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
India's marine product exports facing rough weather from punitive US tariffs are expected to get a big boost following the reduction of 26 per cent tariff as part of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but concerns over non-tariff barriers, which are a dominant aspect of marine trade to the EU, still remain.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
The Oil prices have surged and surpassed $85 per barrel after several oil producer countries announced surprise cuts in production, TASS Agency reported. According to the Russian News Agency, this is the first time since March 7 that the price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil surged. The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2023 delivery on London's ICE surpassed $85 per barrel.
'The problem is not just slower growth, but also the quality of growth.'
US sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies are expected to impact Reliance Industries' crude imports from Russia, while state-run refiners may continue purchases through intermediary traders for now.
Vedanta, a conglomerate in mining and metals, has seen a surge in its share price on the back of multiple triggers. Its demerger appears to be on track, a strong non-ferrous commodity cycle is boosting margins, and silver bulls are interested in Hindustan Zinc, its subsidiary.
'We need to give Pakistan something serious to think about on its eastern front -- that is the only way to actually help Afghanistan right now.'
Though some ingredients such as mild odours or silicones might not be actually harmful, others such as sulphates, parabens or formaldehyde releasers can result in skin irritation, hormonal imbalances and skin barrier damage, advises Dr Ameesha Mahajan.
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